A Conversation with Ashley Stevenson

1. You’ve been in tech since the 1980s, witnessing cycles from mainframes to dotcom to cloud. Today’s AI boom feels eerily similar to the dot-com frenzy. Is there anything different this time?

Well the level of AI investment and valuations certainly seems likely to exceed to number of long-term viable AI business plans, so there will surely be some failures, perhaps even spectacular bubble bursts. However, just like the dot com era, things have changed, and they will never go back to pre-LLM days. More advances are sure to come both in the underlying AI platforms, and the over-the-top AI-enabled applications. I do not think we are anywhere near the correction point for AI-based businesses.

2. The internet bubble was largely about over-valuation. AI today intersects with national security, cyber warfare, and infrastructure. Is the system more fragile now or paradoxically stronger?

Today’s “system” is always fragile in the face of tomorrow’s technology. Just as the web accelerated the product life cycle, AI is doing the same thing. Things that took years before the web, ended up taking months. Now they may take days or even hours. Adjusting to these discontinuities in cycle time will disrupt the system in the near term. It will be interesting to see where it settles out.

3. Companies are pouring billions into AI models while many still run on outdated, vulnerable systems. Are we building the future on sand?

There is no mantra that says the new systems are any more secure against new threats than the old systems were against old threats. It will be unstable and risky as we transition.

4. Policymakers lagged badly during the internet bubble. With AI and escalating cyber attacks, is government intervention a stabilizer, or will it choke innovation?

I believe the impact of government intervention is overestimated. Like the web, this wave is unstoppable. Countries that tried to lock down their citizens and control or prevent access to the Internet did not succeed.  

5. If you were a young CTO today facing both AI disruption and cyber threats, what single strategic principle would you bet your career on?

Look for opportunity in adversity. Do not fight inevitable change, rather embrace the challenge.