From History to Happy Hour: A Lesson in Narrative Drift
In the US, Cinco de Mayo has taken on a life of its own - less a historical commemoration and more a widely accepted excuse to celebrate. Somewhere along the way, the meaning behind the Battle of Puebla was overshadowed by something easier to package, promote, and participate in.
Narratives tend to move in that direction. They get simplified, repeated, and eventually detached from their original context. What starts as a specific story becomes a broader, more convenient version of itself. Over time, the new version sticks.
Markets behave the same way.
Commercialization Drives the Story: What’s easy to sell often wins. A clean, compelling narrative will travel further than a complex but accurate one. Over time, incentives reinforce this - media, investors, and even companies themselves lean into what gains attention, not necessarily what’s most precise.
Repetition Creates Reality: Once a version of the story gains traction, it compounds. The more it’s repeated, the less it’s questioned.
Details Get Lost: Nuance rarely survives scale. Complex businesses get reduced to a single label, whether it fits or not. The risk is that once that label sticks, it can define valuation more than the underlying fundamentals.
Popularity Doesn’t Equal Accuracy: A widely accepted narrative can still be wrong - but that doesn’t stop it from influencing behavior.
Define It Early or Chase It Later: Once the narrative drifts, pulling it back is difficult. It’s far easier to shape perception from the start than to correct it after the fact. If you’re not proactive, you’re left reacting - and reaction is rarely as effective.
Cinco de Mayo didn’t lose its meaning, it was replaced. And in markets, that kind of shift happens faster than most expect.
