Competing for Capital
Last weekend, the Italians offered us an elegant vision of armonia at the opening ceremony of the Winter Olympics. The idea that a vast, decentralized yet interconnected world can compete on equal terms is a powerful image. Yet markets are not governed by ideals of balance. They are governed by incentives, liquidity, and perceived durability.
After a three-year surge fueled by an abundance of optimism, risk assets from Bitcoin to high-growth technology are shredding up gnarly terrain. Gold bulls are still hanging on as treasury yields move higher and the dollar weakens.
This cycle where politics, strategy, and liquidity are inseparable suggests a longer reordering of how and where capital seeks safety, scale, and influence. Right now, investors are betting in multiple sectors and heading outside the US. From European equities, long under-owned by US investors to emerging markets. Based on market analysis so far in 2026, factors like persistent inflation, global liquidity, and geopolitical tensions, rather than acting as opposing forces, are driving demand for both. Capital is seeking durability whether it’s in hard assets, infrastructure, or companies with structural advantages.
If armonia reflects the aspiration of unity, markets are reminding us that capital ultimately flows toward what appears resilient. Location be damned.
With Valentine’s Day fast approaching, it may be tempting to describe this moment as a falling out of love with US equities. That would be overstated. What we are witnessing is rotation, not rupture. Conviction is widening, not evaporating.
On the slopes of Milan Cortina or across global exchanges, affection tends to favor the prepared. Love is not blind, in the markets it is disciplined.
